Trond Christian Vigtel

About

I am a Senior Researcher in the Unit for Macroeconomics at Statistics Norway. My research combines empirical microeconomics, econometrics and policy analysis. Project leader for the ADMOD projection model, financed by the Norwegian Directorate for Higher Education and Skills. Secretariat member of the Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements (since 2019) and The Labour Immigration Committee (since 2026).

Current Research

Working papers and ongoing research projects.

Working paper

Identification of the Demand Elasticity via Heteroscedasticity: A Panel GMM Framework to Estimation and Inference

With Thomas von Brasch and Arvid Raknerud. Statistics Norway Discussion Paper No. 1015, December 2025. Paper

Working paper

Welfare Effects of Pension Reforms

With Herman Kruse and Zhiyang Jia. Statistics Norway Discussion Paper No. 1025, July 2025. Paper

Working paper

Matching Efficiency and the Composition of the Unemployed

Statistics Norway Discussion Paper No. 1023, April 2025. Paper

Revise and resubmit

The Internet, Search Frictions and Aggregate Unemployment

With Manudeep Bhuller, Domenico Ferraro and Andreas R. Kostøl. R&R at The Review of Economic Studies. Working paper

Work in progress

Beyond Constant Markups: Identifying the Export Elasticity under Strategic Pricing

With Thomas von Brasch and Arvid Raknerud.

Publications

Peer-reviewed journal articles.

Work Less but Stay Longer: Mature Worker Response to a Flexibility Reform

With Erik Hernæs, Zhiyang Jia and John Piggott. Labour Economics, 97, 2025, 102771. Published version

Social Security Pension Generosity and the Effect on Household Saving

With Elin Halvorsen, Zhiyang Jia and Herman Kruse. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 126(3), 2024, 529–560. Published version

Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change: A Structural Panel GMM Estimator

With Thomas von Brasch and Arvid Raknerud. The Econometrics Journal, 27(1), 2024, 84–106. Published version

Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomic Performance and Industry Structure in a Small Open Economy

With Pål Boug, Thomas von Brasch, Ådne Cappelen, Roger Hammersland, Dag Kolsrud, Julia Skretting and Birger Strøm. Journal of Macroeconomics, 76, 2023, 103524. Published version

A Two-Stage Bennet Decomposition of the Change in the Weighted Arithmetic Mean

With Thomas von Brasch, Håkon Grini and Magnus Berglund Johnsen. Journal of Official Statistics, 39, 2023, 123–137. Published version

Health, Longevity and Retirement Reform

With Tobias Laun, Simen Markussen and Johanna Wallenius. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 103, 2019, 123–157. Published version

The Retirement Age and the Hiring of Senior Workers

Labour Economics, 51, 2018, 247–270. Published version

Policy Reports and Publications (in Norwegian)

Research and policy-oriented publications from Statistics Norway.

Tilbud av og etterspørsel etter arbeidskraft delt etter utdanning. Impact case: forskning

Notes 2026/8, Statistics Norway. Published version

Potensielle effekter på sysselsetting av økt bruk av generativ kunstig intelligens

Notes 2025/15, Statistics Norway. Published version

Framskriving av tilbud av og etterspørsel etter utdanning mot 2050

Report 2024/48, Statistics Norway. Published version

Teknisk dokumentasjon av ADMOD-framskrivingen

Notes 2024/52, Statistics Norway. Published version

Utdanning og yrke

With Michael Graber and Lars Kirkebøen. Report 2023/7, Statistics Norway. Published version

Utfordringer for lønnsdannelsen og norsk økonomi

With Geir Bjertnæs, Pål Boug, Thomas von Brasch, Brita Bye, Ådne Cappelen, Taran Fæhn, Michael Graber, Thomas S. Gundersen, Roger Hammersland, Erling Holmøy, Håvard Hungnes, Marek Jasinski, Kevin R. Kaushal, Dag Kolsrud, Ewoud Quaghebeur, Julia Skretting, Nils Martin Stølen and Håkon Tretvoll. Report 2023/47, Statistics Norway. Published version.

Lønnsrelasjoner i KVARTS

With Stein Inge Hove and Morten Petter Johansen. Notes 2022/24, Statistics Norway. Published version.

Sykefravær og frafall fra arbeidsmarkedet

With Øyvind Bruer-Skarsbø. Report 2022/10, Statistics Norway. Published version.

Tilstedeværelse, lønnsutvikling og sysselsetting

With Øyvind Bruer-Skarsbø. Report 2020/51, Statistics Norway. Published version.

Drivkrefter bak svak etterspørsel i økonomien

With Oddmund Berg, Thomas von Brasch, Ådne Cappelen, Martin B. Holm and Håkon Tretvoll. Report 2020/32, Statistics Norway. Published version.

Bevegelser inn i, mellom og ut av NAVs ytelser

With Elisabeth Fevang, Simen Markussen and Knut Røed. Frisch Report 2/2016, Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research. Published version.

Endringer i tildeling av ytelser fra NAV

Søkelys på arbeidslivet, 33(3), 2016, pp. 228–246. Published version.

Koronakrisens første uker – hvem tok støyten i arbeidslivet?

With Bernt Bratsberg, Gaute Eilesen, Simen Markussen, Oddbjørn Raaum and Knut Røed. Samfunnsøkonomen, No. 2, 2020, pp. 41–50. Published version.

Experience and Education

2019–present

Senior Researcher, Statistics Norway

Unit for Macroeconomics. Project leader for the ADMOD projection model.

2015–2019

Graduate Student, University of Oslo

Ph.D. research, doctoral coursework and external research projects.

2019

Ph.D. in Economics, University of Oslo

Dissertation: Understanding Retirement Decisions.

Contact

For research-related inquiries, please use the contact details below.